In the second quarter of year 2009 we see the vortex of War on Terror shifting from Afghanistan to the polemical Af-Pak region. After signing a Peace Deal with Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), Pakistan witnessed a brief respite from country-wide acts of terrorism. However, tides turned upon TNSM’s refusal to disarm. Becoming exceedingly unpopular on account of its draconian and regressive punishments against women TNSM led Shariah Nizam quickly began to relapse. Sporadic assaults on law enforcement agencies and suicide bombings in public places resumed.
To mark the climax, late in April Taliban of Swat seized Buner District of NWFP. (Buner, lying at a tangential distance of 60 miles from Islamabad was part of Malakand Division until year 2000 and comprises a mountain valley loosely binding a number of villages that are given seven sub-divisions.) The incident came in consonance with TNSM’s explicit intention to ‘spread out’ of Malakand Division declaring the Constitution of Pakistan un-Islamic. The Taliban left Buner in a few days yet their stay however short-lived, left security monitors across the world panic-stricken. At this point US based analysts began voicing overwrought probabilities that put the safety of Pakistan’s Nuclear Assets into question. Soon Pakistan was to respond with resounding hand, proving all such observations unwarranted. Conversely, the final weeks of April proved episodic and compelled the government of Pakistan to launch a military operation in Swat.
Pakistan’s decision to launch Operation Rah-e-Rast against extremist miscreants of Swat exercised complete confidence of the people of Pakistan. In the course of the operation massive displacement of Swatis took place; yet, since the operation was swift, decisive and successful, by July resettlement of the internally displaced Swatis began to take effect. As of now more than ninety per cent of the internally displaced have been resettled.
Pakistan anticipates international support for the massive collateral damage incurred during the operation that inflicted a heavy blow on Swatis. This quarter, Pakistan became the theatre of War on Terror, in addition to being an ally and active Combatant engaged in an ongoing military campaign against the miscreants and terrorists linked to international terrorist outfits operating within Pakistan.
The drive against terrorist and extremist elements does not discount territorial sovereignty of Pakistan and Afghanistan by virtue of Durand Line. On the other hand in order to further cooperative efforts in rooting out terrorists from both sides of the Durand Line, Pakistan shares comprehensive intelligence and surveillance information with US, ISAF and NATO forces required for carrying out coordinated attacks against terrorists. It is widely believed that US Drone attacks inside Pakistan’s territory may not be conducted without prior knowledge or some sort of nod from Pakistan.
In the first week of August Baitullah Mehsud was reported to have been killed as a result of US Drone.
After subsequent weeks of speculation and reports of infighting, the Taleban appointed a top militant commander to replace Baitullah as their new chief. The appointment of Hakimullah Mehsud, a 28-year-old commander known for his aggressiveness and believed to have masterminded the attack on Sri Lankan cricket team early this year hints on a new wave of militant violence in the urban cities of Pakistan.
In July 2009 US introduced more boots on the ground to launch Operation Khanjar (strike of the sword) in Helmand province, South of Afghanistan. This was the first major allied offensive in Afghanistan since Obama’s new war policy. At this time Pakistan Army was undertaking counterinsurgency in South Waziristan where Baitullah was to be targeted later in August. As opposed to the performance of Pakistan Army, Operation Khanjar has not met with comparable success. For the UK forces July 2009 has been the deadliest month in entire Afghan War. The Presidential elections held in August 2009 in Afghanistan, too, were marked with violence and unrest.
This quarter as events compelled Pakistan to assert against terrorists, Pakistan sought to completely wipe out the extremist in order to bring the previously ungoverned swathes of Northern Areas into the fold of governance. Thus, after the success of Operation Rah-e-Rast, the government of Pakistan on August 29, 2009 announced Northern Areas as a province and named it “Gilgit-Baltistan”. Gilgit-Balistan would enjoy provincial status complete with its own elected Assembly and provincial autonomy and a Governor.
Pakistan’s bilateral situation with India waltzed around Prime Minister Manmohan Singh snubbing President Zardari in Russia while beaming at Prime Minister Gilani at Sharm-el-Sheikh - a smile that faded soon after he landed India. With dialogue process taking one step forward and two steps backward and India insisting on Mumbai issue as a prerequisite to resumption of talks despite the Joint Statement signed at Sharm-el-Sheikh, the composite dialogue continues to simmer in the backburner. India’s involvement in Baluchistan Insurgency versus Mumbai façade, have yet to assume exact bearings in the Indo-Pak calculus for the Composite Dialogue to move forward. As Domestic pressures in India graduate the pace of Composite Dialogue critical issues relating Energy and Environment that require regional consensus await a healthy ambience between India and its neighborhood. Pakistan’s next possible contact with India could be on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly Meeting in New York. |
On the regional landscape, India and Iran held elections in the month of June and August respectively. While India gracefully recovered a Congress led coalition, Iran witnessed country-wide unrest on Ahmedenejad’s re-election. In the recently held Afghan elections similar strife was witnessed and further unrest is foreseen as a result of three likely outcomes: a run-off between Karzai and Abdullah, boycott by either of the two main candidates or even Karzai’s re-election.
Late in June China witnessed ethnic unrest in the Xinjiang Province between Uighar Muslim and Han Chinese that spread across the city quickly where three quarters of the population is Han Chinese. Government responded by sending 20,000 security officials to stabilize the situation. Trials over Xinjiang riots are underway and with 200 people being prosecuted to match the number of casualties. Although the state-owned newspaper did not give a breakdown of Uighurs vs. Han going on trial but it is said that more than 170 Uighurs and 20 Han lawyers have been assigned to the suspects.
In May North Korea carried out its second ever Nuclear Test, drawing protests from US, China and Russia. Carrying out another nuke test through May, North Korea persisted that it no longer considered itself bound by the terms of 1953 truce that led to a seize fire between the two Koreas. Yet in June it proposed reopening talks with the South over Kaesong Factory that is run by the Southern companies and employs workers from the North. In response to the nuclear tests UN Security Council voted unanimously for the imposition of tougher sanctions on North Korea. Pyongyang responded to it by saying that it takes this decision as a US-led blockade against itself and therefore an “act of war” that might compel it to “weaponise” its plutonium stocks. However beginning August, after former US President Bill Clinton visited North Korea to help release US journalists, Pyongyang made series of conciliatory gestures toward Seoul: first by sending a delegation to the funeral of former South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung, then freeing four South Korean fisherman who had been detained for a month and finally agreeing to resume programme of family reunions suspended since early 2008.
In Iran, recovering from chaotic elections, Ahmedinejad went breathless in defense against the expected sanctions upon Tehran’s Nuclear Program while Israeli President Shimon Peres successfully lobbied across Europe for the same. We anticipate the fate of Tehran’s Nuclear Program during the IAEA Conference scheduled to take place in September 2009.
In June, during his speech to the Muslim World in Cairo University, Obama demanded immediate halting of Israeli settlements. Israel responded by agreeing to make some minor gestures while ignoring the core issues. In the beginning of this quarter Obama administration appeared to be ready to make a major issue out of this, but later as it surfaced US continues to side Israel’s policies in the Middle East vis-a-vis Iran and Lebanon. Hence fundamental strategic interests have not been compromised for the issue of settlements under Obama administration.
After the Russo-Georgian war last August Obama administration aimed to ‘resetting’ US-Russian relations. Despite Obama’s pleasant trip to Moscow his efforts have only yielded a ‘qualified success’ at decelerating strategic and diplomatic contest between the two in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. On the whole, U.S-Russian relations generally remain antagonistic this year.
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Amnesty International Report 2009: The State of the World’s Human Rights