Hostile Hills and
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http://www.spearheadresearch.org
Name: Shehzad H. Qazi [sqazi@iupui.edu]
Title: Pakistan's Strategic Interests in
Kashmir
Institution: (International Studies Program)
Indiana
University School of Liberal Arts,
Indiana
University-Purdue University Indianapolis
Indianapolis,
IN 46202
The
South Asian region has been marred by regional conflicts for many decades. The
largest post-Second World War dispute in the region has been between Pakistan and
India over the (previously) Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir. The conflict,
almost sixty years old, persists even after the proposal of multiple seemingly
viable solutions. The complexity and perpetuation of this dispute clearly
indicate that the parties involved have certain underlying strategic interests
in this region which they look to safeguard. These strategic interests, which
inevitably stand in the way of a settlement, have rarely been stated openly by
the governments of either state. This paper lays out the strategic interests
that
Since the partition of British-India in 1947, the new Dominions of Pakistan and India were involved in a heated battle, on the field and inside the diplomatic chambers, over the Princely State of Kashmir. By mid-August 2007, each of the two nations will be celebrating sixty years of independence. After sixty years, three wars [1948; 1965; 1999], and several United Nation Security Council (UNSC) meetings, the resolution of this dispute still does not seem in sight. Apart from the complications that became attached to the problem1, which today warrant remedy and occupy the attention of academics and policy-makers, there exist rather simple strategic concerns of each country in the Kashmir region which act as road blocks in the path to peace and reconciliation in the Indo-Pak region.
It is widely argued that either
state aspires to acquire Kashmir2 in order to validate the
nationalist basis of its creation: it’s “an ideological issue inextricably
linked with the two countries’ identities”3. Analysts argue that
This paper was written
under the guidance of Dr. Richard E. Ward (Dean of Student Affairs, IUPUI) who
mentored the author. It is part of the research carried out in the Summer
Diversity Scholar’s Research Program at Indiana University-Purdue
University Indianapolis.

Kashmir Region
The paramount strategic concerns that each country finds in
this region are far more pressing than any theory of nationalism that they may
want to preserve or embolden. The dismemberment of
The loss of Kashmir will never be treated by the population
of either nation as having some link to a deficiency in their respective
nationalisms. Such evaluation requires education and a scholarly analysis,
which unfortunately most of the population of these nations does not possess.
Therefore, the governments of either nation do not need to focus on confessing
to their people that the nationalist calls their predecessors had harped upon
were constructed on half-truths or passion-filled fantasies alone. Most
academics ignore this reality in their discourse over
Pakistan has various geo-strategic interests in the Kashmir
region, which include political, economic and security concerns; but, its
primary interest revolves around its need for fresh water resources. This paper
will primarily focus on what role these concerns play for
A
Geographic Analysis
Wars and conflicts often have an underlying relation to the consumption or sharing of natural resources. Modern day wars are also linked to interests over natural resources; in each conflict, only a different natural resource takes the role of the constant. It has been widely established by academics that now and in the future, “the natural resource most likely to stimulate interstate resource war is river water”7.
With the general importance placed upon oil as a valued
natural resource, water seems almost a secondary candidate to fight over.
However, the answer to this comes almost naturally from Nirvikar Singh and Ben
Crow, who explain: “South Asian governments seek to control…great rivers of
their region because they offer partial, but tangible, solution to…fundamental
problems of rural poverty, industrial constraints, and urban stress”8.
As further discussion will demonstrate, the economic, political and social
systems of South Asian states are structured to inevitably make water the
single most valued resource, therefore, the resource which entails the greatest
conflict.

Indus
The River Indus and its tributaries all come into
Jhelum
The
Chenab
Originating in the Indian Himalayan range of the Himachal
Pradesh state, the
The remaining two rivers, the Ravi and Sutlej, which along with the three discussed above give Punjab (five rivers) its name, originate and come through India only; therefore, in the current context their geography is unrelated to that of Kashmir’s.
The point critical to the discussion is that the essential tern
ion of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, which provides most of Pakistan’s
freshwater, comes from Kashmir. Its control and usage, therefore, due to the
geography, can never be in
Agricultural needs
These rivers also go down and help the irrigation system of the province of Sindh, the economy of which, like Punjab’s, is also focused on agriculture.
Therefore, Punjab’s and Sindh’s ability to produce crops every year, or Pakistan’s survival as an agricultural economy, rests mostly upon its ability to access these freshwaters flowing in from Kashmir.
Hydro-power needs
Pakistan, though now working towards a civil nuclear program
in cooperation with China, till today and for years to come will be primarily
dependant on hydropower in order to generate electricity in the country.
Regular power outage, referred to as “load-shedding”, is common in all cities where there is electricity. In April and May 2007 the country faced another energy crisis14.
The Mangla and Tarbela dams are Pakistan’s primary
hydro-electric sources. The Mangla dam is located in Azad Kashmir and “depends
on water coming in from
Security
concerns
“Kashmir’s vale and the southwest…are…openmouthed toward
Pakistan.”16: this observation by Robert Mayfield in his early 1950s
study of Kashmir is enough to convey the security threat
Moreover, “should India control Kashmir there would no longer be natural defense lines between the two countries, such as now exist in the Sutlej and Ravi Rivers…Control of the approaches…from southwestern Jammu…make invasion by India easier.” 18
In all wars with India so far, as happened in 1965, Pakistan has feared an Indian invasion primarily through Punjab. In the event of India controlling all of Kashmir, thereby Pakistan being exposed on four sides, Pakistani defense officials would fear a situation in which Pakistani forces would be kept occupied with attacks being launched on the North Western, North Eastern and South Eastern fronts, as an invasion through the plains of Punjab is carried out.
It was for this reason, the late Premier of Pakistan, Liaquat Ali Khan said in 1951 that “the very position of Kashmir—the strategic position of Kashmir—is such that without it Pakistan cannot defend itself against an unscrupulous government that might come in India.”19 Pakistani insecurities in this regard have been aptly captured by Akbar Khan who said that if Indian troops were stationed all across Kashmir’s western border a permanent threat would loom and “Pakistan’s independence would never be a reality”20.

Hostile Hills and
A plebiscite being held in Kashmir means that all of Kashmir
(the entire Princely State as it was prior to the creation of the cease-fire
line) must vote. Depending on what choice the Kashmiri people are given, there
could result a situation in which either all of Kashmir becomes a part of
Amongst academics and policy makers it has been clear from
the start why Pakistan has pushed to gain Kashmir as the fifth province: “Two
reasons for Pakistan’s desire to control Kashmir stand out above all:
development of hydroelectric power [and] protection of water sources for
irrigation in the Punjab and Sind.”21 Even amongst those who
emphasize nation-building as being the real reason for
Most of Pakistan’s capacity to produce hydel energy and
provide for its irrigation systems is completely dependant on water coming from
Kashmir. If
It has been noted that control of the Jhelum waters by
either party—India or Kashmir—through construction of dams, et cetera could put
them in a position to “intimidate” Pakistan. Withholding of water would
“magnify risk of floods and droughts” and “adversely affect” the Mangla dam,
which provides
In addition to Pakistan loosing all chances of control over
valuable resources, the loss of Kashmir, for Pakistan, will also result in loss
of border with China24.
Border loss with China also means that in times of war China
will not be able to provide Pakistan with any support through land. Air would
be the only possible way for provisions to come into
Another security risk, as briefly discussed above, deals
with Indian control of waters flowing into Pakistan. In times of war,
Strategic
Interests and Nationalism
The people of Pakistan, over the decades have become staunch
supporters of Kashmiri freedom. This has come about as a result of government
propaganda—as it was in firm control of the media up till relaxations came about
during the Musharraf regime—war with
As a result of popular government rhetoric, such as “people of Jammu and Kashmir […] are part of people of Pakistan”26 and watching footages of Kashmiri’s chanting “Long Live Pakistan”, many Pakistanis firmly believe that Kashmir does not belong with India under any circumstance, India is a forceful occupant, that Kashmir is a part of Pakistan, and that Kashmiri’s want to become a part of Pakistan.
This would tie in with the argument of nation building
discussed earlier. However, the point to emphasize here is that the people of
While engrossed in the fantasy of seeing Pakistan as a supporter and insurer of Kashmiri’s fight for freedom, most Pakistani’s have completely looked over the real reasons behind Pakistan’s unflinching opposition to Indian presence in Kashmir and unfettering pursuit of federating the region.
The reasons behind Pakistan’s deep interest and concern for
the Kashmir region have been discussed above. It would be reasonable, therefore,
to conclude that loosing Kashmir will have devastating economic, political and
security effects for
Transcending to
the Rational
The state of crises which continues in Kashmir is of
ultimate loss to all parties involved. Be it the hundreds of young men dying in
the streets, Kashmiri women being raped, the youth being “nurtured” by an ugly
world of violence and trauma, the high defense costs to Pakistan and India28,
tense relations, and an overall perpetuation of instability, the dispute hurts
everybody. The first step to peace building is recognition of this ground
reality. Such recognition, then, requires a transcension to the
rational: a realization of the ills of conflict and the benefits of
cooperation.
The Definition of
Cooperation
The definition of cooperation most applicable here is
“mutual adjustment of national policies to one another”29. Such
cooperation then requires the two states to abandon their historic policies of
antagonism. In practical terms, as discussed above, a state of deadlock or standoff
in
Indeed, a lasting settlement of this dispute, a dispute
marred by layers of complications, would have to be one which addresses the
interests of all parties31, but such a settlement can only come about
as a result of cooperation.
__________________________________________________________________
Notes and References
1. Some of the major complications surrounding the dispute include: the controversial
accession of the State to India by Maharaja Hari Singh; the 1947
infiltration of Kashmir by Pakistan Army backed irregulars; the Indian
occupation (which historically portrayed as a result of the invasion of the
irregulars, with new evidence being presented can be proved to be pre-emptive);
the infiltration by Pakistan’s Special Services Group (SSG) in 1965; the
interference of the Indian government in Kashmir’s politics; the Inter-Services
Intelligence Directorate (ISI) operationalized “jihad” of the 1980s and 1990s.
2. Here
Kashmir refers to the entire area of the
Azad Kashmir, Northern Areas (Administered by
3.
Hamir K Sahni. “The Politics of Water in
South Asia: The Case of the
4. Kanti
Bajpai; Sumit Ganguly. “
no. 5 (1994): 402.
5. Ibid.
6. The popular interpretation of the “Two-nation theory” states that Hindus and
Muslims are two different civilizations, and therefore
cannot live together. This interpretation, stating half the reasoning, fails to
mention the concept of Islamic-nationalism, Muslim Indian’s political
aspirations, their inability to ally with the Indian National Congress’
Hindu-nationalism, et cetera. This interpretation assigns to the theory a
seemingly intolerant characteristic which was not part of the original thought,
but as result of the communal violence that occurred in
7. Shlomi Dinar. “Water, Security,
Conflict, and Cooperation”.
8. Ben Crow; Nirvikar Singh. “Impediments and Innovation in International
Rivers: The Waters of
9.
Refer to map in Appendix;
"
Britannica Online. 8 July 2007
http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9110542/Indus-River.
10. “
Britannica Online. 8 July 2007
http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9043618/Jhelum-River
Also refer to map in Appendix.
11. Refer to map in Appendix;
"
Britannica Online. 8 July 2007
http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9023805
12. Nadia
Mushtaq; Farzana Noshab. “Water Disputes in
Studies 21, no.3
(2001): [journal online]; available from
http://issi.org.pk/journal/2001_files/no_3/article/4a.htm; Internet. Accessed
26 June 2007.
13. Teresita
C. Schaffer. “Kashmir: The Economics of
with the Kashmir Study
Group (2005): 17.
14. “WAPDA in fix as energy crisis worsens”. Dawn. 15 April 2007; available from
http://www.dawn.com/2007/04/16/top5.htm; Internet; accessed
9 July 2007.
15. International Crises Group. “Kashmir: The view
From
available
from http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/068_kashmir_islamabad.pdf;
Internet. Accessed 20 June 2007.
16. Robert
C. Mayfield, “A Geographic Study of the
Review 45, no. 2
(1955): 187.
attack on
18. Robert
C. Mayfield, “A Geographic Study of the
Review 45, no. 2
(1955):191.
19. Iffat
Malik. Kashmir: Ethnic Conflict, International Dispute (
2002), 207.
Press, 1993), 112.
21. Robert
C. Mayfield, “A Geographic Study of the
Review 45, no. 2
(1955): 190
22.
http://www.worldbank.org/; Internet. Accessed 3 July 2007.
23. Nadia
Mushtaq; Farzana Noshab. “Water Disputes in
Studies 21, no.3
(2001): [journal online]; available from
http://issi.org.pk/journal/2001_files/no_3/article/4a.htm; Internet. Accessed
26 June 2007.
24. International Crises Group. “Kashmir: The view
From
available
from http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/068_kashmir_islamabad.pdf;
Internet. Accessed 20 June 2007.
25. Nadia
Mushtaq; Farzana Noshab. “Water Disputes in
Studies 21, no.3
(2001): [journal online]; available from http://issi.org.pk/journal/2001_files/no_3/article/4a.htm;
Internet. Accessed 26 June 2007.
26. “
part of
27. Shlomi Dinar. “Water, Security,
Conflict, and Cooperation”.
2
(2002): 232-233.
28. International Crises Group. “Kashmir: The view
From
available
from http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/068_kashmir_islamabad.pdf;
Internet. Accessed 20 June 2007.
29. Shlomi Dinar. “Water, Security,
Conflict, and Cooperation”.
2
(2002): 242.
30.
continue to face) the social and economic problems
developing nations face.
31. This
essay primarily focuses on the three prominent parties to this dispute,
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"
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