Q2 - 2009

S. No.	Title	Author	Description	Link	Link
001	Unholy Speech and Holy Laws: Blasphemy Laws in Pakistan-Controversial Origins, Design Defects, and Free Speech Implications	Osama Siddique (Ph.D Candidate at Harvard Law School and Associate Professor at LUMS)	Though blasphemy laws are not peculiar to Pakistan, they arguably exist in a more problematic and controversial form in that country than in others. Since their introduction in the 1980s, blasphemy laws have frequently captured the local and international headlines for the apparent injustice of their form and procedure, as manifested in the tragic human dramas that have been played out as a result.1 This article attempts to provide the first exhaustive and analytical review of Pakistan’s historical and continuing experience with blasphemy laws and argues that these laws were introduced for the less than bona fide political imperatives of an authoritarian regime. These laws continue to be a cause of grave concern because of their patent defects of form and procedure, which are exacerbated by Pakistan’s current social and political milieu.
002	The 2005 South Asian Earthquake: Natural Calamity or Failure of State?	Maryam Khan and Osama Siddique	This article conducts a review and evaluation of the various potential legal remedies that might be available to the victims of the 2005 south Asian earthquake against public officials and the state. It argues that such litigation may establish accountability for the failures of the past and go some way toward providing compensation to those affected; it may also compel the state to establish adequate regulatory mechanisms of the future.
003	From AfPak to PakAf	Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) / Daniel Markey	President Barack Obama publicly unveiled his administration’s so-called AfPak (Afghanistan-Pakistan) strategy on March 27, 2009. Over the subsequent weeks, the White House has also briefed relevant congressional leaders and committees, the media, NATO allies, and other regional and in-ternational partners. The U.S. House of Representatives has moved ahead with its own legislative debate (the PEACE bill)1, and the administration recently submitted a 2009 supplemental budget request consistent with its new strategy. While the broad contours are in place, clearly Washington’s approach to South Asia remains a work in progress. The strategy’s authors insist that it is intended to provide a framework, not a strait-jacket, for U.S. policy. Questions remain about the correct prioritization of U.S. objectives; the level of and manner in which U.S. diplomatic, military, intelligence, and economic resources should be deployed; and the appropriate sequencing and duration of U.S. efforts.
004	A New Beginning for Pakistan: America’s Strategy for Success	Mahboob Mahmood	President Barack Obama has been a strong supporter of the twin propositions that (a) a stable, peaceful and progressive Pakistan is crucial for success in the global engagement that his predecessor had so trippingly mislabeled the ‘war on terror’ and (b) the problem of Pakistan must be addressed at a military, political, diplomatic and economic level. While these propositions appear to make sense, the battle for Pakistan is close to being lost. Only a strategy born at the ground zero of defeat will be able to engender a new beginning for Pakistan.
005	The Quiet Coup	Simon Johnson	"Our future could be one in which continued tumult feeds the looting of the financial system, and we talk more and more about exactly how our oligarchs became bandits and how the economy just can’t seem to get into gear. The second scenario begins more bleakly, and might end that way too. But it does provide at least some hope that we’ll be shaken out of our torpor. It goes like this: the global economy continues to deteriorate, the banking system in east-central Europe collapses, and—because eastern Europe’s banks are mostly owned by western European banks—justifiable fears of government insolvency spread throughout the Continent. Creditors take further hits and confidence falls further. The Asian economies that export manufactured goods are devastated, and the commodity producers in Latin America and Africa are not much better off. A dramatic worsening of the global environment forces the U.S. economy, already staggering, down onto both knees. The baseline growth rates used in the administration’s current budget are increasingly seen as unrealistic, and the rosy “stress scenario” that the U.S. Treasury is currently using to evaluate banks’ balance sheets becomes a source of great embarrassment.
006	Pakistan's Fatal Shore	Robert Kaplan	"After Bangladesh left Pakistan,” Marri continued, in his mild and lecturing tone, “the only dynamic left within this country was the imperialist power of the Punjabi army. East Bengal was the most important element in Pakistan. The Bengalis were numerous enough to take on the Punjabis, but they seceded. Now the only option left for the Baluch is to fight.” He liked and trusted no one in Pakistan who was not Baluch, he told me. And what about Punjabi overtures to make amends with the Baluch?, I asked. “We say to these Punjabis”—still in his sweet, regal voice—“‘Leave us alone. Get lost. We don’t need your direction, your brotherliness.’ If Punjab continues to occupy us with the help of the American imperialists, then eventually our name will be nowhere in the soil.” Marri explained that Baluchistan overlaps three countries—Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan—and would eventually triumph, as the central governments of all those lands weakened. Gwadar, in his view, was just the latest Punjabi plot that would prove temporary. The Baluch would bomb the roads and pipelines leading out of the town. Leaving his villa, I realized the development of Gwadar depended on how the government in Islamabad behaved. If it did not make a grand bargain with the Baluch, of a scope that would isolate embittered men like Marri and Nisar Baluch, then indeed the giant project near the Iranian border would become another lost city in the sand, beset by local rebellion. If the government did make such a bargain, allowing Baluchistan to emerge as a region-state under the larger rubric of a democratic and decentralized Pakistan, then the traditional fishing village that I saw could well give way to a Rotterdam of the Arabian Sea, its highways and pipelines stretching northward to Samarkand. But nothing was destiny.
007	A Ten-Year Framework for Afghanistan	The Atlantic Council of the United States / Ashraf Ghani	The Atlantic Council of the United States promotes constructive U.S. leadership and engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic community in meeting the international challenges of the twenty-first century. The Council comprises a non-partisan network of leaders who aim to bring ideas to power and to give power to ideas by: • stimulating dialogue and discussion about critical international issues with a view to enriching public debate and promoting consensus on appropriate responses from the administration; the Congress; the corporate and nonprofit sectors; the media in the United States; and leaders in Europe, Asia, and the Americas. • conducting educational and exchange programs for successor generations of U.S. leaders so that they will come to value U.S. international engagement and have the knowledge and understanding necessary to develop effective policies. Through its diverse networks, the Council builds broad constituencies to support constructive U.S. leadership and policies. Its program offices publish informational analyses, convene conferences among current and future leaders, and contribute to the public debate in order to integrate the views of knowledgeable individuals from a wide variety of backgrounds, interests, and experiences.
008	Swat deal and implication for the rest of Pakistan	Center for Research and Security Studies	Swat has now been in the news for all the wrong reasons for a long time. It had become imperative to establish peace there or at least bring about a situation that could, eventually, establish a durable peace in what was once the most tranquil valley on earth. Many thousands of people have been displaced from their homes due to the intense fighting and are now living in pathetic conditions elsewhere in the North-western Frontier Province (NWFP). It was the responsibility of the government of NWFP to rise to the occasion and somehow bring about a situation that could raise the hopes of the people of Swat, in particular, and those of Pakistan, in general, that peace, after all, was a possibility.
009	Afghanistan in 2009 - The First Quarter	Raghav Sharma - Research Officer, IPCS	In the first quarter of 2009, three issues have taken center stage: Taliban resurgence and it’s spread into Pakistan; the Af-Pak strategy of the US unveiled by Obama; and the debate on the forthcoming Afghan Presidential elections. This essay attempts to analyze the above three crucial developments.
010	India in 2009 - The First Quarter	Urvashi J Kumar - Research Officer, IPCS	Three issues dominated India in the first quarter of 2009: the aftermath of Mumbai terror attacks, Satyam fraud and elections for the Parliament in 2009. This essay analyze the above three events.
011	UK policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan: the way forward	Crown copyright 2009	Afghanistan and Pakistan are of critical strategic importance to the UK and the international community as a whole. Instability and insecurity in both countries have a direct impact on our national security and the safety of our citizens. Of the six major sources of threat set out in the UK’s National Security Strategy, Afghanistan and Pakistan are relevant to at least four: • Terrorism – Afghanistan was the base for Al Qaida’s terrorist activity, including the largest ever terrorist atrocity of 11 September 2001; Al Qaida’s senior leadership is currently located in the border areas of Pakistan, and three quarters of the most serious plots investigated in the UK have links back to Pakistan; • Conflict – The insurgency in Afghanistan and insecurity in Pakistan have an impact on regional instability which affects the UK’s interests, not least given our deep connections with the region and the large British Pakistani community; • Transnational crime – Afghanistan is the source of 90% of the heroin in the UK, and we estimate that roughly half is smuggled via Pakistan; • Weapons of mass destruction – Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state. Its proper control of its weapons and nuclear material, and the prevention of proliferation to other countries or non-state actors, is vital to our interests.
012	Pakistan – Complex Emergency	USAID - From The American People	Fact Sheet #5, Fiscal Year (FY) 2009 May 7, 2009 KEY DEVELOPMENTS • On April 19, U.N. and international media sources reported that Taliban militants had occupied government offices and established Taliban-controlled checkpoints in Buner District in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). • The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that increased military operations in Buner District, NWFP, and Orakzai Agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) during the week of April 27 resulted in significant population displacement to Mardan and Hangu districts, respectively. • On May 3, military operations began in Lower Dir District, NWFP, primarily affecting populations in and around Maidan, Lal Qila, Bishgram, and Lijbook administrative areas. OCHA reported that the operations have resulted in significant displacement and loss of humanitarian access to the district. • On May 5, U.N. and international media reported that militants had attacked security personnel and Government of Pakistan (GoP) installations in Mingora, Swat District, violating the GoP–Taliban peace accord. Due to increased violence, and in anticipation of a GoP military response, local populations in Swat prepared to flee areas of conflict to seek refuge in neighboring districts. • On May 6, the USAID/OFDA emergency disaster relief coordinator (EDRC) in Pakistan reported that the number of conflict-affected internally displaced persons (IDPs) may now exceed 1 million, including reported IDP numbers as follows: 556,539 registered IDPs in NWFP; 25,824 IDPs in NWFP not yet in official databases; 47,704 registered IDPs outside NWFP; 330,000 estimated IDPs from Buner District; 102,000 estimated IDPs in Lower Dir District, and an initial 6,000 IDPs from Swat District. The EDRC also indicated that as many as 200,000 additional IDPs could flee the conflict in Swat District in coming days. • In FY 2008 and to date in FY 2009, the U.S. Government (USG) has contributed more than $57 million in humanitarian assistance for conflict-affected populations in NWFP and FATA.
013	Reflections on the Paris Declaration and Aid Effectiveness in Afghanistan	Rebecca Roberts	The issue of aid effectiveness in Afghanistan is high on the agenda of the Government of Afghanistan (GoA), the international community and other development actors.1 Despite this, aid is widely criticised for not being effective. Criticisms stem from perceptions that the impact of assistance has been limited, that the security situation is deteriorating, and that funding and resources are either being mismanaged or misappropriated. When development actors, particularly donors, talk about aid effectiveness, they are often referring to the 2005 Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness and assessing whether aid to Afghanistan complies with its principles. The Declaration refers to the effective management of aid at high levels through mechanisms agreed between the donors and the recipient government. The focus of the Declaration is on the effective management of aid rather than its implementation and impact. However, the management of aid and its impact tend to be conflated; although aid is criticised for not having an effective impact, the scale against which its effectiveness is often measured is the managementorientated principles of the Paris Declaration.
014	A Model for Population-Centered Warfare: A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing and Understanding the Theory and Practice of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency	James A. Gavrilis	One of the most profound changes the U.S. military must make to be effective at countering insurgency is to shift strategic centers of gravity from the physical to the human aspects of warfare. The nature of counterinsurgency, or unconventional warfare, differs from conventional warfare in a very important way: the population is the center of gravity. We say this, but what does it mean? How does it change operations? How do we implement this idea? Many of our military leaders are still trying to answer these questions. Our military has a predisposition to focus on enemy forces and capabilities and the confrontation between friendly and enemy forces, with little emphasis on the social or political context within which the confrontation takes place. The change to seeing the population as the center of gravity is a major shift for conventional forces. It is a serious adjustment from our current and predominantly conventional military thinking about warfare. Although this idea has been discussed and debated in military and academic circles for at least a decade, the shift has not been made by all. However, this critical re-focusing is required for successful counterinsurgency campaigns, for countering terrorism in the long term, and for successful conduct of stability operations, or any form of irregular, hybrid, or population-centered warfare.
015	Enhancing the Footprint: Stakeholders in Afghan Reconstruction	BAS RIETJENS, MYRIAME BOLLEN, MASOOD KHALIL, and SAYED FAZLULLAH WAHIDI	As Afghanistan is so clearly demonstrating, one reconstructs during conflict and stabilization, not after it. Reconstruction is in many ways the essential process that bridges conflict and stabilization.”1 The necessities of reconstruction have frequently drawn the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) into activities that go well beyond its originally intended mission of providing direct security. Examples include contributing to security sector reform such as restoring the rule of law or training the national police and army; delivering essential services such as health care, education, or food; and supporting the functioning of the Afghan authorities. Although most military forces would readily agree that they are not the appropriate actors to be performing nonsecurity-related tasks within the traditional humanitarian domain, in many areas such as the southern Afghan provinces of Helmand, Zabul, and Uruzgan, tenuous security conditions prevent humanitarian organizations from establishing a presence. In some instances these organizations are deliberately targeted by insurgent groups in an effort to prevent them from gaining a foothold or becoming effective in assisting the local populace.2 In such situations, the debate on specific domains3 becomes less relevant, and military involvement in nonmilitary activities is necessary to provide a temporary gap and gain momentum for reaching the primary military goal: the creation of stability.
016	Afghanistan: Stocktaking, May 2009	Karl Harbo & Klas Marklund	The decision to deploy an additional 17,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan is the first concrete action by the Obama administration regarding the country. The troops will undoubtedly have an effect on the situation on the ground as they constitute a substantial increase in the troops available for operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
017	WAR AND ESCALATION IN SOUTH ASIA	RAND Corporation	The research reported here was part of a study called War and Escalation in South Asia, which was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force Director of Plans (XOX); Commander Central Command Air Forces (CENTAF/CC); and Commander, Pacific Air Force (PACAF/CC); and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF). This monograph focuses on the highlights that emerged from an examination of the potential for regional conflicts, tensions, and instability in South Asia to endanger U.S. goals and objectives in the region and more broadly, U.S. equities in the Middle East and greater Asia. Because India and Pakistan are both nuclear weapon states with a long history of tensions and sporadic violence between them, much of the monograph focuses on their relations and the potential for future trouble. This study deals with other sources of friction and conflict, although in a more limited scope. The research should be of interest to anyone concerned with regional stability issues.
018	Obama & Afpak: exit from Afghanistan, entry into Pakistan?	Juan Garrigues / Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior	Some commentators have taken advantage of the recent deterioration of the situation in Pakistan to criticise the new US strategy for Afpak (Afghanistan and Pakistan) as a continuation of the Bush administration policy. Yet a more profound analysis of the strategy would reveal that President Barack Obama and his team have taken signifi cant steps in the right direction. The US President has smoothed the way towards a military “exit strategy” for the international community in Afghanistan; in addition, the central role of Pakistan in any regional stability strategy is implicitly recognised by including Afghanistan’s neighbour to the east as part of the same theatre of operations; and fi nally, the “entry” Obama proposes in Pakistan is economic, rather than military.
019	International Seminar: Countering Extremism: Strategies and Sharing Best Practices	Pak Institute for Peace Studies	Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) organized an international seminar on Countering Extremism: Strategies and Sharing Best Practices in collaboration with Quaid-e-Azam University’s Department of Defence and Strategic Studies on 4-5 May, 2009. The main purpose of the seminar was to share the common experiences on de-radicalization measures taken to address the issue in all major regions of the world. Analysis of major success stories/case studies, strengths and weaknesses, and opportunities and threats inherent in all counter-radicalization models/measures was another goal. The underlying theme, however, was to come up with better, effective and practical approaches/models for countering extremism and radicalization in Pakistan.
020	Terrorism Monitor: The FM Mullahs And the Taliban’s Propaganda war in Pakistan	Mukhtar A. Khan	Terrorism Monitor is a publication of Jamestown Foundation. The Terrorism monitor is designed to be read by policy-makers and other specialists and yet to be accessible to the general public. The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Jamestown Foundation. This issues of Terrorism Monitors covers subjects: Iraq’s Muqtada Al-Sadr seeks regional influence with visit to Ankara; Jihadis discuss plans to seize Pakistan’s Nuclear arsenal; Europe’s oldest terrorist organization: The BASQUE ETA marks 50 years of its operations and The FM Mullahs and the Taliban’s propaganda war in Pakistan.
021	Amnesty International Report 2009: The State of the World’s Human Rights	Amnesty International Report	The Amnesty International Report 2009 documents the state of human rights during 2008, in 157 countries and territories around the world. It reveals the systemic discrimination and insecurity that prevent progress in law from becoming a reality on the ground. Crucially, this report reveals a world where, time and again, states pick and choose the rights they are willing to uphold, and those they would rather suppress. The report opens with five regional overviews that highlight the key events and trends that dominated the human rights agenda in each region in 2008. The heart of the book is a country-by-country survey of human rights, from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. Each entry begins with a summary of the human rights situation in the country. Amnesty International’s concerns on various issues are then set out, highlighting individual cases where appropriate.
022	Pakistan's Crisis: Incremental steps toward Sustainable Democracy	Ingolf Kiesow, Nicklas Norling, Svante Cornell, Niklas Swanström	"Pakistan’s Crisis: Incremental Steps toward Sustainable Democracy" is a Policy Paper published by the Institute for Security and Development Policy. The Policy Papers Series is the Institute’s Occasional Paper series, and aims to provide concise and accessible analysis of contemporary issues and events. The Institute is based in Stockholm, Sweden, and cooperates closely with research centers worldwide. Through its Silk Road Studies Program, the Institute runs a joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. The Institute is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders and journalists. It aims to be at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development in the region. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures and seminars, the Institute aspires to function as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion regarding the region.
023	Can Pakistan Defy the Odds - How to Rescue a Failing State, Institute for Social Policy and Understanding	Hassan Abbas - ISPU Fellow	Is Pakistan collapsing? How far are the Taliban from Islamabad? Can al-Qaeda grab the country’s nuclear weapons? These are the types of questions raised every day by the American media, academia and policy circles. And these are critical issues, given the nature of the evolving crisis in Pakistan. The approximately two dozen suicide bombings in 2009 so far, 66 in 2008, and 61 in 2007, all of which have targeted armed forces personnel, police, politicians, and ordinary people not only in the country’s turbulent northwest but also in its major urban centers, indicate the seriousness of the threat. A major ammunition factory area located close to some very sensitive nuclear installations in Wah (Punjab) was targeted by two suicide bombers in August 2008, an act that sent shudders across the country’s security establishment.
024	Major U.S. Arms Sales and Grants to Pakistan Since 2001	K. Alan Kronstadt, Specialist in South Asian Affairs	Major government-to-government arms sales and grants to Pakistan since 2001 have included items useful for counterterrorism operations, along with a number of “big ticket” platforms more suited to conventional warfare. In dollar value terms, the bulk of purchases are made with Pakistani national funds: the Pentagon reports total Foreign Military Sales agreements with Pakistan worth $4.89 billion for FY2002-FY2008 (in-process sales of F-16 combat aircraft and related equipment account for about three-quarters of this). The United States also has provided Pakistan with nearly $1.9 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) since 2001 (including scheduled FY2009 funds), with a “base program” of $300 million per year for FY2005-FY2009. These funds are used to purchase U.S. military equipment. Pakistan also has been granted U.S. defense supplies as Excess Defense Articles (EDA).
025	SPECIAL REPORT: AFGHANISTAN The Nature of the Insurgency	STRATFOR Global Intelligence	There is no doubt that the Taliban currently have the initiative in Afghanistan, but the movement has a long way to go before it can effect a decisive victory. While the Taliban need not evolve from insurgent group to conventional army to achieve that goal, they must move beyond guerrilla tactics, consolidate their disparate parts and find ways to function as a more coordinated fighting force.
026	Pakistan’s IDP Crisis: Challenges and Opportunities	International Crisis Group	In the wake of a conceptually flawed peace agreement, the Taliban takeover of large parts of Malakand division, subsequent military action in the area, almost three million internally displaced persons (IDPs) have fled to camps, homes, schools and other places of shelter across Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). The challenge for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) - led government and international actors is to make relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts responsive to needs and empower local communities in Malakand Division. Failure to do so will reverse any gains on the battlefield and boost radical Islamist groups.
027	India and the Impending FMCT	Rekha Chakravarthi, Research Officer, IPCS / Yogesh Joshi, Research Intern, IPCS	There are three contentious issues concerningthe FMCT. First is regarding the definition of the term fissile material. Second is the scope, (what materials, facilities and countries will be covered under the treaty) and the third is the verification process. What is the present situation regarding these issues? As far as defining fissile material is concerned, there is not much dispute on that. There are technical definitions which our IPFM (International Panel on Fissile Materials) panel website provides for. However, for simplicity and policy purposes the term fissile material refers to highly enriched uranium (HEU, with more than 20 per cent of U-235) and basically all forms of plutonium, with some technical exceptions, for example, material with high Pu-238 content is exempt since it is very difficult to weaponise it.
028	Contextualizing Counterinsurgency	By Bruce MacDonald	A few days before Christmas in 2007, on the day the Pentagon bade farewell to Donald Rumsfeld, the Department of Defense launched its new field manual on counterinsurgency (COIN). Incredibly, the field manual had been written in just thirteen months, often with the input of officers who were actually in theatre fighting at the time. In the first month after its release, FM 3-24: Counterinsurgency, was downloaded more than 1.5 million times from Army and Marine Corps websites, reviewed on extremist Salafi websites and later even found in Taliban camps in Pakistan. This unclassified document has since then become one of the key tools in what, since the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review, was rechristened “ The Long War”.
029	Flawed Doctrine or Flawed Strategy?	Morgan Sheeran	United States and her allies are in trouble in Afghanistan. That’s not hard to see. What seems to be taking up all the bandwidth these days is a conversation about how to go about reversing the backwards slide that Afghanistan is in. The Department of Defense notes in its January, 2009 report on Afghanistan, “The Taliban regrouped after its fall from power and has coalesced into a resilient and evolving insurgency.” It goes on to state, “Shortfalls limit the Allies’ capacity to fulfill all aspects of the COIN strategy.” Meanwhile, the military’s senior leadership is spending its time discussing such things as the appropriateness of the doctrine developed to fight and succeed in such wars. Some are even excusing failure beforehand. Air Force Major General Charles J. Dunlap, Jr. pointed out in the pages of Armed Forces Journal that the United States did not “lose” the Cold War as a result of our failure in Vietnam, thereby implying that failure in Afghanistan would be less than catastrophic and therefore tolerable.
030	Canada’s Engagement in Afghanistan: a quarterly report to the Parliament March 2009	Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2009.	Three imperatives describe the scope of Canada’s engagement in Afghanistan: security, governance and development. And together these imperatives are advanced by a systematic Canadian concentration on improving Afghanistan’s rule of law. The dynamic here is compelling. A strong and just rule of law helps create social peace, personal security and a ready alternative to violent conflict; it demonstrates and reinforces responsible and effective governance; and it promotes the reliable foundation of order and confidence that lasting development requires. By taking practical action to help Afghans strengthen the rule of law, Canada is contributing to the development of a more peaceful, better governed Afghanistan. This quarterly report addresses Canada’s engagement in Afghanistan from January 1 to March 31, 2009, and gives particular attention to improving the rule of law as one of the central elements in Canada’s mission there. As with past quarters, future reports will take up similarly timely and significant aspects of our Afghan engagement while surveying progress on all of Canada’s priority objectives.
031	The Obama Speech: The Problem of Facts on the Ground	Anthony H. Cordesman	The initial debate over President Barack Obama’s speech has tended to focus on the details of his rhetoric and on whether he sent exactly the right message to the Muslim world. The consensus seems to be that it was well drafted, gave the right messages, and set the proper stage for further action. Judging by Muslim and Arab reactions, the speech also set the right tone in improving the image of U.S. leadership and in trying to overcome the ideological tensions of the past eight years. Aside from the usual bickering over nuance, the main objection has been that a speech is no substitute for action, and particularly for the specific action any given critic wants the United States or the president to take.
032	IPCS Nuclear Policies of Japan and Australia: Implications for India	Rajesh Joshi	The Institute of Peace and Conflict studies , organized a discussion over the Nuclear and security policies of Australia and Japan and its implications on India.The discussion was initiated by Kimberley Layton, Australian Intern at IPCS, who delineated over the Australian security and Nuclear Policy followed by the Japanese Intern, Tomoko Kiyota, who discussed the Japanese approach.
033	Policy Brief on India’s neighborhood	Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis	India's neighbourhood is in turmoil. This creates a variety of internal and external security challenges for the country. Terrorism, maritime security and border management are the key challenges. India needs to give focused attention to its neighbourhood as a stable and friendly South Asia is a sine qua non for its progress.
034	Beyond Bullets: Strategies for countering Violent Extremism June 2009	Kristin M. Lord, John A. Nagl, Seth D. Rosen, David Kilcullen, Larry Diamond, Camille Pecastaing, Harvey M. Sapolsky, Daniel Benjamin	To guide future American efforts to coun¬ter violent Islamist extremism, the Center for a New American Security launched a strategy development process modeled after President Eisenhower’s Project Solarium. CNAS asked five experts to recast the effort in sustainable terms and in a manner consistent with American values. The result was a series of essays that recommended new counterterrorism tools and strategies for the Obama administration.
035	SIPRI YEARBOOK 2009: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security Summary	Stockholm International Peace Research Institute	The SIPRI Yearbook was first published in 1969 and is now in its 40th edition. SIPRI Yearbook 2009 presents a combination of original data in areas such as world military expenditure, international arms transfers, arms production, nuclear forces, major armed conflicts and multilateral peace operations with state-of-the-art analysis of important aspects of arms control, peace and international security. The Yearbook is written by both SIPRI researchers and invited outside experts. This booklet summarizes the contents of SIPRI Yearbook 2009 and gives samples of the data and information in its appendices and annexes.
036	CNAS Working Paper: Natural Security	By Sharon Burke	This paper is intended to be the starting point for a new program of exploration at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). As such, it is a concept paper rather than a research paper, though there is certainly a wealth of fascinating scholarship on the range of natural resources challenges the United States will face in the coming years. We hope to build on this research – and take it in a different direction.
037	Winning Damaged Hearts and Minds: An Irregular Warfare Concept	David L. Grange, S. Swanson, and Patrick Christian	In ungoverned and under-governed environments, the local populace is usually the center of gravity. Other centers of gravity within the population may include the will of the people that takes form as support for the governing authority or other political, economic and ideological forces. To win their hearts and minds and wean them off our adversaries’ control requires effective communication using the local “information systems.” Effective communications at the local level earns trust, which, in turn, establishes loyalty to our cause, commitment, and eventually buy-in to the regime we support. It also requires a focus on the local economic ecosystem that delves down to the community level, improves basic prosperity, honors local culture, and reinforces what’s important to the people. It requires a focus on the local political system that respects local codes, social networks, and empowers local leaders that eventually will connect to the state, region, and national political system.
038	Meeting the Challenges in Pakistan	Lawrence J. Korb, Brian Katulis, and Colin Cookman May 2009	During the Obama administration’s first four months in office, Pakistan has reemerged as a top national security concern. Internal instability and violence in Pakistan has escalated, with a Taliban insurgency seizing more territory and militant groups undermining a weak Pakistani state. Divisions among Pakistan’s political leaders, which came to a head in a battle between Pakistan’s two leading political parties in March, have impeded a national consensus on addressing the long list of Pakistan’s problems. Furthermore, a volatile regional security environment has deteriorated, with the Mumbai terrorist attacks in late November escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, and the war in Afghanistan having a direct impact on Pakistan’s security. The United States is now transitioning from formulating a new strategy on Pakistan to the more difficult task of policy implementation and execution.
039	The PLA Navy’s “New Historic Missions”	CORTEZ A. COOPER	The Commission poses a key question regarding China’s re-emergence as a maritime power: do recent People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) activities reflect a China that will act as a responsible stakeholder, or a China that will seek to only pursue its own national interests? My testimony hopefully will provide insight into the PLAN as a rapidly modernizing maritime force, whose fleet over the next decade will be structured, equipped and trained for a diversified mission portfolio supporting China’s expanding economic interests. Whether or not this will equate beyond 2020 to the construction of a force capable of global sea power projection will largely depend upon the perception of China’s leaders regarding the viability of economic lifelines under existing maritime security conditions. In the next three to five years, Chinese Communist Party elites probably will make the decisions determining the direction of naval power projection for the next two to three decades.
040	Terrorism Monitor : In-depth analysis of the War on Terror	The Jamestown Foundation	PRESIDENT OBAMA’S OUTREACH TO THE MUSLIM WORLD (I) – AFGHAN TALIBAN ATTACK BARACK OBAMA’S “ARROGANT” CAIRO SPEECH U.S. President Barack Obama’s June 4 speech in Cairo was seen by many observers as an outreach to the Islamic world. Within that world, some welcomed his words, some wait to see if deeds of substance accompany those words, while others, such as the Afghan Taliban, described the President’s words as nothing more than “misleading slogans” that “failed to deliver a clear and true message to the Muslim world.” The speech failed to contain any “sign of practical change in the hostile policy of America towards Muslims” (Afghan Islamic Press, June 5).
041	Poppy is Not the Most Profitable Crop, It’s the Only Crop	Allison Brown	If poppy were really the most profitable crop in Afghanistan, farmers would be growing it year-round. They're not, nor are they growing all that much of it outside 4 provinces in the south. How can this be if poppy is such an economic slam dunk? It is no lie that poppy has advantages. Poppy fits a special niche in the agriculture calendar, the winter season when very few valuable crops can grow. The harvested opium gum is imperishable and easily transportable and it increases in value with age, serving as a home-grown, interest bearing bank account. And the opium can be used as a pain killer where there are no doctors. The disadvantages of poppy – that it is illegal, haram (forbidden), and a management nightmare – are overshadowed by farmers' need to survive. But the notion that opium is the most profitable crop is a myth.
042	Direct Overt U.S. Aid and Military Reimbursements to Pakistan, FY2002-FY2010	K. Alan Kronstadt, Specialist in South Asian Affairs	Direct Overt U.S. Aid and Military Reimbursements to Pakistan, FY2002-FY2010
043	Enemies, Irregular Adversaries, Spoilers, Non-compliant Actors	Grant Dansie	This working paper is part of the Norwegian engagement in the Multinational Experiments 6 (MNE 6). The project is financed by the Norwegian Ministry of Defence and is managed by the Norwegian National Joint Headquarters. Besides NUPI, the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) and the Defence Staff College are also engaged in the programme. This study examines how definitions may significantly affect strategy by focusing on the example of non-violent or low level violent actors in Afghanistan that are perceived as negatively affecting international peace and stability operations. It highlights that the situation is inherently more complex that at first glance. Our definitions may carry entrenched meanings that negatively affect our perceptions of certain actors. At the same time the situation on the ground is extremely complex with numerous factors influencing this perceived negative behaviour. The study outlines a number of dilemmas involved in developing these definitions, as well as highlighting howthese play out on the ground. The study draws on a number of interviews with NGO workers, researchers, Western government officials and NATO/ISAF troops.
044	ISAF Operations Report released in the UNSC	UNSC	United Nations Security Council report on the operations of the International Security Assistance Force covering the period from August 2008 to January 2009.
045	Pakistan’s Nuclear Assets - Safe and Secure	Rabia Akhtar - Defense and Diplomatic Studies, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan	In September 2001, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, published a report addressing the question of safety and security of Pakistani nukes and four worst case scenarios were analyzed regarding the fall out of political instability in Pakistan; prospects of nuclear terrorism; possibilities of rogue military commanders or units accessing nuclear warheads or fissile materials, and consequences of any temporary loss of centralized control over nuclear storage sites. The study concluded that any worst case scenario was ‘overstated’.
046	Principles of Modern American Counterinsurgency: Evolution and Debate	Janine Davidson - The Brookings Institution	Brookings Counterinsurgency and Pakistan Paper Series Insurgency and counterinsurgency are not new to Americans. People often forget that the American Revolution was an insurgency by colonists against the British crown. In South Carolina, Frances Marion, the so-called “Swamp Fox” who hid with his band of guerrillas in the woods and led raids against British troops, is considered an American hero. Likewise, during the American Civil War, southern “partisans” such as John Mosby, of Mosby’s Rangers, became infamous for their successful guerrilla tactics against Union soldiers.
047	IPCS Conference Report : Towards the 2010 NPT RevCon	Rekha Chakravarthi, Yogesh Joshi	The third session of the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) meeting for the 2010 NPT Review Conference (RevCon) should be seen from India’s point of view, that is, possible Indian approaches to the 2010 RevCon and also regarding where does the NAM group stand at present? What was different this time was, first, the continuing defiance of Iran and North Korea, second, Obama’s ascendance and serious efforts towards nuclear disarmament and third, India’s entry into the NPT whereas efforts to universalize the NPT was repetitive.
048	GUIDE TO REBUILDING GOVERNANCE IN STABILITY OPERATIONS: A ROLE FOR THE MILITARY?	Derick W. Brinkerhoff, Ronald W. Johnson, Richard Hill	This Governance Guide, fourth in the PKSOI Papers Series to be published by the U.S. Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute (PKSOI) and the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), is designed to further U.S. military understanding of the critical nation-state building role that U.S. forces play during stability operations. During the last 8 years, the Department of Defense (DoD) has experienced revolutionary change in its perception of its role in stability operations and more particularly, nation-state building. The introduction of DoD 3000.05, which placed stability operations on par with military operations, ushered in a new era of military operations focused on the reconstruction, rebuilding, and governance phase of peacekeeping.