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To the Brink and Back

Spearhead Analysis—18.12

The finger pointing is slowly stopping. The media frenzy is abating. The blame game is not quite over but it has lost its earlier momentum. The dark war clouds have lightened and are being blown away. The crisis persists but there are voices of reason from both sides and, having made the compulsory media waves to ward off pressures for action, the politicians are taking a hard look at the reality on the ground and the future course that events could take The two air forces have shaken their wings.. This is the India-Pakistan way of managing crises notwithstanding Western fears of a war or military action that could lead to war and a nuclear exchange.

India blamed Pakistan knowing that there would be denial. India gave a list of suspects for extradition to India knowing that Pakistan would not comply. India went to the UN Security Council knowing that there would be agreement and that this would give Pakistan the platform it needed for action---action that Pakistan had already begun so as to avoid the stigma of acting under Indian or UN or US pressure. The US played its ‘big brother’ role on ‘separate tracks’ in both countries. Thus was face saving accomplished and the post event action begun.

Two good clarifications emerged from this episode First that ‘non state’ actors could no longer be an excuse for inaction---the country that tolerated them and that permitted the existence of infrastructure that could be used by them had to bear responsibility for their actions. Second that ungoverned or marginally governed spaces in any country were a danger to world peace and order because these could be sanctuaries and havens for international terrorism. The implication of these is that countries have to be ‘hard’ within and well governed to qualify as safe and interactive members of the globalized world. These are good lessons for both India and Pakistan because they need to look inwards even as they set out to cooperate against terror. This could be a good item for discussion once India removes its finger from the pause button and resumes dialogue. Both should note the resilience shown by the cease fire along the Line of Control and the dismay this must have caused to those who sought to disrupt India-Pakistan relations.

Against the backdrop of a World Public Opinion Poll that highlights world disapproval of US military deployments and the International Council on Security and Development report that gives the reality of Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan there is much that India and Pakistan could discuss. Pakistan’s perception of Indian interference in Pakistan’s stability through its string of ‘consulates’ in Afghanistan, Indian and US concerns over ISI involvement or patronage and Pakistan government control over its military and intelligence apparatus and the existence of individuals and organizations in India and Pakistan that have extremist agendas and links with the underworld and both domestic and international terrorists leading to their exploitation There is also the planned US troop surge in Afghanistan and its likely effect as well as the impact of air attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s FATA under the new definition of the ‘battle space’. India-Pakistan cooperation and the resolution of the Kashmir issue could dramatically change the scenario in South Asia.

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