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[Spearhead Research]

Spearhead Analysis—30.12

The Gathering Storm?

Most such discussions start with a broad survey of the environment followed by criticism of the policies being implemented and finally the conclusion is reached that either the government or external forces or both acting in collusion are responsible. The questions that are asked repeatedly are whether Pakistan is fighting its own war or someone else’s war, whether the US is helping Pakistan or destabilizing it to take out the nuclear capability and of course the all important question---what should Pakistan do? A positive starting point is that Pakistan has an elected government that is now in control.

By now most Pakistanis know what is happening around them and within them. These frequently asked questions have been answered by events and Pakistan should know that all states –including the US—act in what they determine to be their interest. Pakistan has to decide what is in its interest and then make policies to pursue that interest---it is no use wringing hands and repeating that there is no freedom to make policies. After all Pakistan did forge, and maintains, an enduring strategic relationship with China, it did acquire and demonstrate a nuclear weapons capability and it continues to improve its strategic capabilities. Pakistan chose to join the US sponsored jihad against the former Soviet Union and later chose to back the southern faction in Afghanistan and, yet again, chose to become a US ally in the war against terror just as it chose to support the freedom struggle in Indian Held Kashmir and then opted for a comprehensive dialogue with India. These were all policy choices made by Pakistan.

Now the line is blurred between the internal and external pressures that are creating what is being called the gathering storm. According to media reports, and in the opinion of locals, most of the NWFP, or Pukhtoonkhwa, is destabilized with the Taliban calling the shots in major parts of FATA and Swat. This situation is one facet of the gathering storm and its origin is in the US-NATO-Afghan-India conflict with the Pashtuns in Southern Afghanistan and, according to the US, the battle space includes FATA. Pakistan has yet to forge a comprehensive policy against this threat from within and without though a determined military response is being made and even expanded after attacks in and around Peshawer.

Baluchistan has a latent internal situation that can be tweaked up or down by external manipulation. By now Pakistan has a clear idea of who the external actors are and who are their internal collaborators. This becomes another facet of the gathering storm considering the new deep water port and the gas reserves in Baluchistan.

In Karachi there has been ethnic violence as well as terrorism. There seems to be some sort of stand-off between different ethnic groups with weapons available and probably stockpiled. Political ambitions or external forces could be the trigger for the sort of episodes that have erupted without warning in the past. This violence could then spread to Sind where there are Sindhis and settlers and there is a past record of external involvement in stoking movements.

Central and Southern Punjab has religious organizations that have been active in the support of the Kashmiri Freedom Struggle and lately in significant social uplift projects as part of a rehabilitation phase. Exploitation of splinter groups and their infrastructure by non-state actors cannot be ruled out.

The impasse with India after the Mumbai terrorist attacks has raised concerns world wide over confrontation and possible conflict between the two nuclear weapon states if India were to resort to military action. So far India has indicated that it will use diplomatic coercion to get Pakistan to act against those whom it has identified as the perpetrators of the attacks. The perception is that India is using its old suspicions to fix responsibility for the present event because it has not presented any hard evidence to Pakistan so far. Pakistan has, however, acted on the UN Resolution and there are voices asking Pakistan to act against extremists and non-state actors in its own interest. Indian and US pressure at this stage can be counter productive because the government will start coming under domestic pressure to resist outside demands. This is the time to have not stop dialogue and to forge relationships and structures on the basis of trust because the struggle is long term not short term.

The economic decline is another negative facet of the overall environment. Power outages, food inflation, insecurity, crime, gas shortage and contrived events like petrol, food or other shortages have an impact on the social fabric and public opinion. Political polarization that shifts focus and resources to trivial issues also has a negative impact. Unity between power centers can become a powerful factor for stability.

This brief survey can only flag the pieces of the mosaic that could be a gathering storm. Appropriate agencies need to develop the picture in greater accuracy and detail with the resources and input available to them. Pakistan faces three main issues---militancy, economic weakness and lack of governance. For each of these a comprehensive policy has to be developed and then orchestrated into an overall national policy---for the short, medium and long term. Piece meal and reactive responses to specific events fall in the category of crisis management and not policy. A national policy backed by a credible implementation mechanism will attract international support and give hope to the people and turn centrifugal forces inwards by enhancing their stakes in the country and its future. Policy makers working in compartments create and not solve problems if they are of the scale and magnitude that Pakistan faces.

Against militancy a military response in one or two areas is not the answer---a comprehensive policy that deals with all aspects of overt and latent militancy has to be made. On the economic side the recourse to the IMF is at best a stop-gap arrangement---a much broader and longer term blue print is required that caters for the impact of the security environment and meshes with foreign policy. Governance can only come after political stability, rehabilitation and strengthening of institutions, personal example and above all constant and interactive response to the people. Gathering storms can create unfounded fears and could blow away before ever becoming menacing. Gathering storms can also be dispelled by timely action. Gathering storms if ignored can acquire a momentum of their own. The bottom line is that Pakistan has to forge policies that start giving it the inner strength and hardness to resist the internal and external forces behind the gathering storm. This can, and must be done.

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